Note: If the table is not loading correctly on your mobile device via Twitter, then copy and paste this link in your browser and view the post on my site at https://hoopsdistillery.com/mockdraftcomp-feb23/.
2/16 update: I knew more mock drafts were coming, but not this soon! Tankathon updated his picks just hours after I posted this #mockdraftcomp and then Sam Vecenie/The Athletic released his today. Vecenie has Jalen Hood-Schifino way up at #15 and Kobe Bufkin at #28. He also has Terquavion Smith dropping way down to the bottom of the 1st round and Nick Smith moving down to the late lottery. Lots to think about and analyze, as always To make that analysis a bit easier, I updated the pick variance chart. Not surprisingly, there’s high variance across the mid-lottery guys whose value differ greatly across mocks.
Sending good vibes and all of our support to Jeremy Woo who got laid off by Sports Illustrated yesterday, along with a bunch of other awesome writers (even one of my fav’s, Howard Beck!). All I can say is…it’s THEIR loss! We’ll be looking forward to Jeremy landing somewhere good soon, so he can pick up where he left off with his all-star level draft analysis.
The February mock drafts are here and so far, we have picks from Jonathan Givony/ESPN-Draft Express and two from Jonathan Wasserman/Bleacher Report who seems to be updating his mock every two weeks. Plus, I added our Hoops Distillery updated mock draft. Little to no fluctuation in production for Wemby or Scoot this month. Jarace Walker is moving up the boards after a run of great games proving his great versatility, and Brandon Miller seems to be solidly in the 3 to 5 range after Alabama’s run to #1 in the country. Meanwhile, Nick Smith was back in action this week for Arkansas, and Dereck Lively came back onto draft radars after a stellar performance against UNC.
Shout out to Tankathon‘s ‘box ‘Prospect Game Logs‘ page. If you haven’t checked this out, it’s a great tool, for those of us who are tight on time. What becomes a bit frustrating with the ESPN.com box scores is that it can be sorted it by either top 25 or by conference, but as teams move in and out of the top 25 it’s easy to miss a game or two.
Also, I highly recommend this post from @deanondraft called The Downside of Upside if you’re looking for some good food for thought as we approach the heart of draft season. Reading this immediately made me think of Gradey Dick, who most have going in the 10-15 range. Due to his size, basketball IQ and elite shooting he has a very high floor, but as @deanondraft points out, that does not mean he doesn’t also have a high ceiling. Based on this, would any of us really be surprised if he ends up the 3-5th best player in this draft over guys like Nick Smith, Cam Whitmore, or the Thompson twins? They all have less size, less production, less definable skills than Dick, but still have the perception of having higher ceilings based on more elite athleticism.
There will be more mock drafts posted in the coming weeks, so make sure to check back for updates and follow me at @hoopsdistillery on Twitter for update notifications. Also, if I’m missing any mock drafts that you feel belong alongside the ‘All-NBA level’ draft analysts I currently include, leave a comment or DM me on Twitter.
The Athletic (2/16) | Tankathon (2/15) | B/R (2/14) | Hoops Distillery (2/12) | ESPN (2/4) | B/R (2/1) |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. HOU | Victor Wembanyama | 1. HOU | Victor Wembanyama | 1. HOU | Victor Wembanyama | 1. HOU | Victor Wembanyama | 1. HOU | Victor Wembanyama | 1. HOU | Victor Wembanyama |
2. DET | Scoot Henderson | 2. SAS | Scoot Henderson | 2. SAS | Scoot Henderson | 2. SAS | Scoot Henderson | 2. DET | Scoot Henderson | 2. DET | Scoot Henderson |
3. SAS | Brandon Miller | 3. DET | Brandon Miller | 3. CHA | Amen Thompson | 3. DET | Amen Thompson | 3. SAS | Amen Thompson | 3. CHA | Amen Thompson |
4. CHA | Amen Thompson | 4. CHA | Amen Thompson | 4. DET | Jarace Walker | 4. CHA | Gradey Dick | 4. CHA | Brandon Miller | 4. SAS | Ausar Thompson |
5. ORL | Jarace Walker | 5. ORL | Ausar Thompson | 5. ORL | Brandon Miller | 5. ORL | Nick Smith | 5. ORL | Ausar Thompson | 5. ORL | Cam Whitmore |
6. IND | Cam Whitmore | 6. IND | Jarace Walker | 6. IND | Gradey Dick | 6. IND | Brandon Miller | 6. OKC | Nick Smith | 6. TOR | Brandon Miller |
7. WAS | Anthony Black | 7. ORL | Nick Smith | 7. NOP | Cam Whitmore | 7. NOP | Jarace Walker | 7. IND | Jarace Walker | 7. NOP | Nick Smith |
8. NOP | Ausar Thompson | 8. NOP | Keyonte George | 8. ORL | Nick Smith | 8. ORL | Anthony Black | 8. ORL | Keyonte George | 8. IND | Jarace Walker |
9. TOR | Keyonte George | 9. WAS | Cam Whitmore | 9. TOR | Keyonte George | 9. WAS | Cason Wallace | 9. TOR | Cam Whitmore | 9. ORL | Keyonte George |
10. OKC | Gradey Dick | 10. TOR | Gradey Dick | 10. WAS | Ausar Thompson | 10. TOR | Keyonte George | 10. WAS | Anthony Black | 10. WAS | Gradey Dick |
11. ORL | Cason Wallace | 11. POR | Anthony Black | 11. POR | Taylor Hendricks | 11. OKC | Cam Whitmore | 11. NOP | Gradey Dick | 11. POR | Jett Howard |
12. POR | Nick Smith | 12. UTA | Cason Wallace | 12. UTA | Cason Wallace | 12. POR | Ausar Thompson | 12. LAL | Cason Wallace | 12. OKC | GG Jackson |
13. UTA | Rayan Rupert | 13. OKC | Brice Sensabaugh | 13. OKC | Anthony Black | 13. UTA | Jett Howard | 13. POR | Kyle Filipowski | 13. UTA | Cason Wallace |
14. LAL | Jalen Hood-Schifino | 14. GSW | Dariq Whitehead | 14. GSW | Jett Howard | 14. GSW | Taylor Hendricks | 14. UTA | Jett Howard | 14. PHX | Brice Sensabaugh |
15. ATL | Jett Howard | 15. ATL | Jett Howard | 15. UTA | GG Jackson | 15. ATL | Rayan Rupert | 15. UTA | Brice Sensabaugh | 15. ATL | Taylor Hendricks |
16. UTA | Kris Murray | 16. LAL | Kris Murray | 16. LAL | Brice Sensabaugh | 16. UTA | Kyle Filipowski | 16. NYK | Rayan Rupert | 16. LAL | Maxwell Lewis |
17. GSW | Brice Sensabaugh | 17. NYK | Kyle Filipowski | 17. ATL | Kris Murray | 17. LAL | Kris Murray | 17. ATL | Maxwell Lewis | 17. NYK | Anthony Black |
18. NYK | Jordan Hawkins | 18. UTA | Rayan Rupert | 18. HOU | Jalen Hood-Schifino | 18. NYK | Brice Sensabaugh | 18. NYK | Kris Murray | 18. GSW | Kris Murray |
19. POR | Taylor Hendricks | 19. HOU | Terquavion Smith | 19. NYK | Jordan Hawkins | 19. HOU | Maxwell Lewis | 19. GSW | Taylor Hendricks | 19. UTA | Kyle Filipowski |
20. BKN | Maxwell Lewis | 20. MIA | GG Jackson | 20. POR | Dariq Whitehead | 20. POR | Dariq Whitehead | 20. PHX | Jalen Hood-Schifino | 20. LAC | Jordan Hawkins |
21. LAC | Dariq Whitehead | 21. BKN | Kel'el Ware | 21. BKN | Maxwell Lewis | 21. BKN | GG Jackson | 21. MIA | Dariq Whitehead | 21. NYK | Kel'el Ware |
22. MIA | GG Jackson | 22. POR | Taylor Hendricks | 22. MIA | Rayan Rupert | 22. MIA | Terquavion Smith | 22. SAC | Colby Jones | 22. MIA | Terquavion Smith |
23. SAC | Colby Jones | 23. SAC | Dereck Lively | 23. SAC | Ricky Council | 23. SAC | Dereck Lively | 23. LAC | James Nnaji | 23. SAC | Dariq Whitehead |
24. IND | Julian Phillips | 24. BKN | Noah Clowney | 24. BKN | Terquavion Smith | 24. BKN | Colby Jones | 24. IND | GG Jackson | 24. IND | Noah Clowney |
25. MEM | James Nnaji | 25. MEM | Maxwell Lewis | 25. MEM | Colby Jones | 25. MEM | Kel'el Ware | 25. BKN | Leonard Miller | 25. BKN | Jalen Hood-Schifino |
26. IND | Dereck Lively | 26. IND | Colby Jones | 26. IND | Bilal Coulibaly | 26. IND | Jordan Hawkins | 26. HOU | Jordan Hawkins | 26. MEM | Colby Jones |
27. BKN | Kyle Filipowski | 27. UTA | Leonard Miller | 27. UTA | Kyle Filipowski | 27. UTA | Noah Clowney | 27. MEM | Dereck Lively | 27. HOU | Rayan Rupert |
28. HOU | Kobe Bufkin | 28. CHA | Jalen Hood-Schifino | 28. CHA | Noah Clowney | 28. CHA | Jalen Hood-Schifino | 28. UTA | Terquavion Smith | 28. UTA | Marcus Sasser |
29. LAC | Leonard Miller | 29. LAC | Marcus Sasser | 29. LAC | Marcus Sasser | 29. LAC | Leonard Miller | 29. CHA | Dillon Mitchell | 29. CHA | Leonard Miller |
30. IND | Terquavion Smith | 30. IND | Bilal Coulibaly | 30. IND | Kel'el Ware | 30. IND | Julian Phillips | 30. IND | Kel'el Ware | 30. IND | Jalen Wilson |
Pick Variance | High | Low | Variance |
---|---|---|---|
Kyle Filipowski | 13 | 27 | 14 |
Rayan Rupert | 13 | 27 | 14 |
Jalen Hood-Schifino | 14 | 28 | 14 |
Taylor Hendricks | 11 | 22 | 11 |
Terquavion Smith | 19 | 30 | 11 |
Anthony Black | 7 | 17 | 10 |
GG Jackson | 12 | 24 | 10 |
Maxwell Lewis | 16 | 25 | 9 |
Kel'el Ware | 21 | 30 | 9 |
Dariq Whitehead | 14 | 23 | 9 |
Ausar Thompson | 4 | 12 | 8 |
Nick Smith | 5 | 12 | 7 |
Gradey Dick | 4 | 11 | 7 |
Cam Whitmore | 5 | 11 | 6 |
Brice Sensabaugh | 13 | 18 | 5 |
Cason Wallace | 9 | 13 | 4 |
Jarace Walker | 4 | 8 | 4 |
Jett Howard | 11 | 15 | 4 |
Noah Clowney | 24 | 28 | 4 |
Colby Jones | 22 | 26 | 4 |
Leonard Miller | 25 | 29 | 4 |
Brandon Miller | 3 | 6 | 3 |
Keyonte George | 8 | 10 | 2 |
Kris Murray | 16 | 18 | 2 |
Amen Thompson | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Victor Wembanyama | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Scoot Henderson | 2 | 2 | 0 |
References:
The Athletic [Sam Vecenie]
ESPN/Draft Express [Jonathan Givony]
Bleacher Report [Jonathan Wasserman] – February 1st
Bleacher Report [Jonathan Wasserman] – February 14th
Search #mockdraftcomp on Twitter for all past Tweets
Potential Movement of Draft Order (via Jonathan Givony/ESPN-Draft Express)
- Charlotte’s first-rounder is owned by Atlanta if Charlotte’s pick falls between No. 17 and 30 in 2023. If Charlotte’s pick finishes between 1-16, Atlanta will instead receive Charlotte’s 2024 first-rounder, lottery-protected.
- On draft night, Charlotte scored a protected top-14 protected first-rounder from Denver via Oklahoma City and New York in a three-way trade.
- Houston has first-round swap rights with Brooklyn.
- Houston owns Milwaukee’s first-rounder, which is unprotected.
- Brooklyn owns Philadelphia’s first-rounder, which is unprotected.
- Chicago’s first-rounder is owned by Orlando if Chicago’s pick falls between 5 and 30 in 2023. If Chicago’s pick finishes between 1-4, Orlando will instead receive Chicago’s 2024 first-rounder, protected for picks 1-3.
- Portland’s first-rounder is owned by Chicago if Portland’s pick falls between 15 and 30 in 2023. If Portland misses the playoffs as expected, Chicago will instead receive Portland’s 2024 first-rounder, again lottery-protected.
- Cleveland’s first-rounder is owned by Indiana if Cleveland’s pick falls between 15 and 30 in 2023. If Cleveland misses the playoffs, Indiana will instead receive Cleveland’s 2025 second-round pick and the Lakers’ 2026 second-round pick.
- Dallas’ first-rounder is owned by New York if Dallas’ pick falls between 11 and 30 in 2023. If Dallas’ pick finishes between 1-10, New York will instead receive Dallas’ 2024 first-rounder, protected for picks 1-10.
- Denver’s first-rounder is owned by Oklahoma City if Denver’s pick falls between 15 and 30 in 2023. If Denver misses the playoffs, Oklahoma City will instead receive Denver’s 2024 first-rounder, again lottery-protected.
- Detroit’s first-rounder is owned by Oklahoma City if Detroit’s pick falls between 19 and 30 in 2023. If Detroit’s pick falls between 1-18, Oklahoma City will instead receive Detroit’s 2024 first-rounder, again protected for picks 1-18.
- Oklahoma City has first-round swap rights with the Los Angeles Clippers.
- New Orleans has first-round swap rights with the Los Angeles Lakers.
- On draft night, New York gained two protected first-round picks, both via Oklahoma City: a top-14 protected originally from Washington, and a top-18 protected originally from Detroit.
- Washington’s first-rounder is owned by Oklahoma City if Washington’s pick falls between 15 and 30 in 2023. If Washington’s pick finishes between 1-14, Oklahoma City will instead receive Washington’s 2024 first-rounder, protected for picks 1-12.

****************************************************************
Other NBA Draft consumables for your reading pleasure:
[NBA Draft]: 2023 Big Board Comparison, December 2022 (updated 1/8)
We finally have a few 2023 big boards to stack up against each other. So, here’s our first #bigboardcomp of the year featuring boards from Sam Vecenie/The Athletic, Jonathan Wasserman/Bleacher Report, Jonathan Givony/ESPN-Draft Express and Tankathon.
[NBA Draft]: 2023 Mock Draft Comparison, Oct/Nov/Dec 2022
Some fresh picks to compare from Jeremy Woo/SI, Jonathan Wasserman/Bleacher Report, ESPN-Draft Express/Jonathan Givony, Sam Vecenie/The Athletic, and Tankathon. Wemby + Scoot we know, but then what…
[NBA Draft]: Comparison of Actual 2022 Draft vs. Final Mock Drafts
A comparison of the final 2022 mock drafts from the top NBA Draft analysts compared to the actual 2022 draft order.